LONE HEMP
34/1 Aygedzor Street
Yerevan, 4202

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About

Lone Hemp is a small private fund set up in 2022 and managed by one person.

Oct 31, 2024
Top holdings GOOGL 15%, BABA 13%, GOOG 12%, BRK.B 12%, LAD 12%, RYGYO 10%, ABG 5%, AN 5%, JD 4%, PDD 4%
Performance 33.30% - 1 year, 23.89% - 3 years
Portfolio p/e 12

Ideas

Berkshire
Pages 2, 3, and 48 of Q3 2024 report say that trailing operating earnings are $41.4 bln, cash is $305.5 bln, long term debt is $124.5 bln, fixed maturity and equity investments are $317.8 bln, market capitalization is $950 bln. EV / operating earnings is 10.9. Third largest auto insurer, largest US railroad network, utility and a collection of sturdy controlled businesses sold at 10.9 is cheap. BNSF has lowest operating margins among railroads. When industry turns, laggards tend to perform better. Lastly, Buffett thinks BNSF replacement value is at least $500 bln.

Geico is widely hated in investor community, especially on Reddit and VIC (ironic). It is argued that Progressive is a much better business overall, but is Progressive 50% better? Hard to find out. One thing that stands out is that Geico multiple is 1.5 times lower, and its float is managed by an outstanding investor.

Berkshire is better than average business trading 2 times cheaper than market. It looks undervalued.

Google
Google recent DOJ antitrust case is something that would hurt any business. However, Trump election pushed stock price up overnight, as market believes Trump will stop Google breakup. And just like that the cheapest hyperscaler stops being spat on. On a P/E basis Google is twice cheaper than Amazon, and its multiple is lower than S&P 500 average, which is absurd. SOTP analysis suggests that if we assign hyperscaler multiple to Google cloud business, deduct cash from market capitalization, then YouTube and Google search trades at 12 P/E. It is undervalued.

China
Whether it's Alibaba, JD, or Pinduoduo Chinese equities are cheapest they have ever been. Stimulus news in September 2024 launched KWEB 50% up over 2 weeks. Actual stimulus did not impress Wall Street and KWEB slid 20%. Nobody knows when markets are satisfied with further stimulus, but when it happens it will be late to chase.

Pending

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